Bond.az - Barclays is maintaining its 2026 average Brent crude oil price forecast at $100 per barrel, though risks are skewed to the upside.
On Friday, Brent futures traded around $105 per barrel as investors doubted a breakthrough in U.S.-Iran talks, while the key Strait of Hormuz remained closed.
Before the war, about 20% of global energy supplies transited the strait. The conflict has removed 14 million barrels per day of oil (14% of global supply) from the market, from suppliers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Kuwait.
Barclays noted: "Inventory trends are signaling a 6-8 million bpd deficit, with U.S. inventories nearing the lowest levels since 2020."
Even if the Strait of Hormuz fully reopened today, inventories would still be roughly 20 million barrels below the tightest level in recent history, even in the most optimistic scenario.
Meanwhile, demand remains largely resilient. Any weakness linked to industrial activity will likely recover strongly if supply normalizes quickly.
