Economists surveyed by Bloomberg unanimously expect Romania's central bank to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 6.50% at its meeting on May 15, according to a report from Erste.
The National Bank of Romania is expected to revise its inflation outlook upwards, leading to a hawkish tone at the press conference.
Rate hikes are seen as highly unlikely. Tighter liquidity management via sterilization is an option but not on the table now.
Such a decision is more likely triggered by currency weakening concerns. The interest rate differential versus core and CEE markets is factored in.
The market prices in two ECB rate hikes by September, while Erste sees only one hike in June and rates unchanged across CEE through 2026.
This article was generated with AI support and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.
