Raymond James has reiterated an Outperform rating and $90 price target on Nutrien (NYSE:NTR) following a new potash contract settlement in India. The stock currently trades at $71.62, offering roughly 26% upside, and has gained 30% over the past six months.
The Belarusian Potash Company (BPC) signed a contract with Indian Potash Limited at $383 per metric ton CFR, a $34 (9.7%) increase from the previous settlement. The deal runs through December 31, 2026 and covers about 600,000 metric tons.
The new Indian contract exceeds Raymond James’ prior forecast of $365 per metric ton. The firm expects Canpotex to finalize a similar agreement based on this framework.
The contract was delayed roughly six months compared to China’s last settlement in November 2025, priced at $348 per metric ton. The Indian contract carries a $35 premium over the China deal.
Raymond James stated the settlement supports its constructive potash thesis, reflecting robust demand and tightening fundamentals, reinforced by Nutrien’s strong Q1 2026 results. The bullish outlook is echoed by nine analysts who recently revised earnings upward.
According to Bond.az analysis, Nutrien appears undervalued at current levels with a perfect Piotroski Score of 9, indicating strong financial health.
Nutrien’s Q1 2026 earnings showed EPS of $0.51 (slightly below $0.53 forecast) but revenue of $6.05 billion exceeded the expected $5.35 billion. Retail and Nitrogen segments drove performance, while Phosphate lagged.
Jefferies noted Retail added $0.04 to EPS, Nitrogen added $0.05, while Phosphate subtracted $0.04. Oppenheimer reaffirmed an Outperform rating with an $82 target after investor meetings, highlighting balanced potash supply/demand and high nitrogen and phosphate prices.
