Bond.az -- Bond yields surged on Kevin Warsh's first day as Federal Reserve chair. Strategists at Yardeni Research and Bank of America warn markets are losing patience with the central bank's easing bias. A hawkish pivot is increasingly inevitable.
Yardeni Research said the bond market selloff reflects fears that Warsh will tolerate inflation rather than raise the federal funds rate. But they argue he will have little choice but to capitulate.
"The Bond Vigilantes will force him to pivot," the firm wrote, adding that FOMC colleagues are also likely to push in that direction.
Yardeni said it would not rule out a June rate hike. The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and Brent crude holds above $111 per barrel, the greater the likelihood of a shift from an easing bias in April to a tightening bias in June.
Bank of America FX Strategist Kamal Sharma struck a similar tone, pushing back the timing of Fed rate cuts to 2027. He noted that all metrics of financial conditions point to a policy stance that is more easy than tight.
With other major central banks, including the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, each pricing in three hikes this year, BofA said the Fed "may have little alternative but to recognize strength in data as a high bar to rate cuts."
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.63%, a level Yardeni had predicted was "likely to move up to" in the coming days just last Wednesday. The firm said a further move to 4.75% to 5.00% would represent a buying opportunity for both bonds and stocks. Yardeni maintained its year-end S&P 500 target of 8,250.
