Turkish seismologist Naci Görür announced that the probability of a strong earthquake in the Istanbul region is approximately 48%.
The scientist referred to studies conducted after the 1999 earthquake in the Marmara Sea. Initial research indicated a risk of over 60% in the next 30 years, but new data reduced it to 48%.
Görür emphasized that the threat remains high, though an exact date cannot be predicted. Seismologists have repeatedly warned that a magnitude 7+ quake could destroy 90,000 homes and damage 260,000 beyond repair.
The last similar disaster occurred in August 1999.
