According to political scientist Rashad Bayramov, the US-Iran agreement could be a strategic turning point affecting Middle East security architecture and global energy markets. He notes that the process hinges on three pillars: limiting Iran's nuclear program, stability in the Strait of Hormuz, and easing sanctions.
Bayramov emphasizes that the core issue is the nature of the agreement. After initial deals, long-term negotiations on Iran's nuclear program are expected. If an agreement is reached on peaceful nuclear activities, it will involve serious oversight. The US aims to block Iran's military nuclear potential, while Iran seeks sanctions relief and reduced economic isolation. This balance will determine the agreement's sustainability.
Another key dimension is regional security. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical artery for global oil supply, and any tension there impacts world markets. Thus, the economic aspect is strategically important for the US, Iran, Europe, and Asia. Markets' mild reactions suggest optimism, but the agreement's durability remains questionable.
Political volatility in the US and Iran's internal divisions pose challenges. Israel's stance adds pressure. Leaders like Netanyahu's critical position and Iran's regional influence through proxy networks indicate that even with a nuclear deal, regional competition will not fully disappear.
While a US-Iran deal would reduce global tension and stabilize energy markets, it is not a final solution but a manageable temporary balance. Its sustainability depends on political will, regional actors' behavior, and shifting global geopolitics.
