In a parched West Texas field, farmer Scott Irlbeck slipped his hand into a crack wide enough to swallow it. Last autumn, his wheat barely grew due to lack of rain.
Now he hopes his insurance adjuster will declare it a total loss, sparing him the cost of expensive fuel for harvest.
Soaring fuel and fertilizer costs from the Iran war are compounding misery for farmers across the Plains states.
Even before the war, farmers faced drought, high input costs, and trade policy fallout.
Since the Strait of Hormuz closure in late February, diesel prices jumped 72%, urea 55%, and nitrogen fertilizer 33%, according to the Kentucky Farm Bureau.
Drought means smaller harvests to offset those costs. Irlbeck says: 'Fuel, drought, fertilizer – three strikes. Am I out?'
The U.S. is expected to produce the smallest hard red winter wheat crop since 1957. Over 60% of the continental U.S. is in drought.
In Oklahoma, agronomist Amanda De Oliveira Silva says rain can't reverse damage already done.
South Dakota farmers are reconsidering fertilizer plans due to high prices and poor conditions, says extension agronomist Clarence Winter.
USDA says the Trump administration is focused on increasing domestic fertilizer production.
Oklahoma farmer Tommy Salisbury notes input prices are at 2026 levels, but crop prices are from the 1970s and 80s.
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins acknowledged hardship. A Farm Bureau survey found most farmers can't afford all needed fertilizer.
Advance purchases vary by region; many Southern farmers lack storage for fertilizer.
West Texas cotton farmer Kody Carson didn't pre-book fertilizer: 'How can I be prudent and book expensive fertilizer when I don't know if I'll make a crop?'
Tom Gregory, growing cotton in Petersburg, Texas, faces costs up from $402 to $558 per ton. He leans on faith: 'I hope the good Lord takes care of us.'
