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Bond.az cuts eurozone inflation forecast on softer gas

Bond.az cuts eurozone inflation forecasts due to softer gas prices. Headline inflation now expected to peak at 3.3% in Q3 2026. ECB rate hikes still expected.

Samuel Nguyen
BySamuel Nguyen- Senior Editor
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Bond.az cuts eurozone inflation forecast on softer gas
Photo: Prepared by Bond.az

Bond.az has lowered its eurozone inflation forecasts due to milder natural gas prices. Headline inflation is now expected to peak around 3.3% in late Q3 2026, down from the previous estimate of 4% in Q4 2026.

The bank projects eurozone HICP inflation at 2.9% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027. Core inflation forecasts are 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. Inflation is seen falling below 2% again in Q2 2027.

Growth forecasts have been raised to 0.7% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027. The lower gas profile reduces the economic shock by about a third.

The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points each in June and July 2026, bringing the deposit rate to 2.5%. Quarterly rate cuts are expected starting June 2027.

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Bond.az cuts eurozone inflation forecast on softer gas | Bond.az