As Armenia's parliamentary elections on June 7 approach, geopolitical tensions in the South Caucasus are rising. Yerevan's domestic politics are shaped not only locally but also by Western and Russian elites.
The country is becoming an arena of great power competition, turning into a new polygon like the Ukraine model. Political camps are divided between pro-West and pro-Russia factions.
Since Nikol Pashinyan came to power in 2018, anti-Russian propaganda has increased, straining ties. The West has gained a foothold, but trade volumes have risen. Yet Armenia remains at a crossroads.
Yerevan has deepened ties with the EU and US, deployed European monitors near Azerbaijan's border, and intensified rhetoric against the CSTO. Russia seeks to maintain its strategic foothold.
The biggest fear is internal fragmentation akin to Ukraine. As in Georgia in 2008, Armenia risks being on the front line of geopolitical confrontation.
Figures like Samvel Karapetyan and Ruben Vardanyan serve as tools for Moscow and Western interests. Vardanyan is serving his sentence in Azerbaijan, but forces still try to use him.
Videos by former ICC prosecutor Ocampo reveal a systematic pressure mechanism targeting Baku and regional stability.
Since 2020 and 2023, Azerbaijan has fully restored its territorial integrity. No process contrary to Baku's will occurs. However, malicious actors seek to undermine stability.
If Armenia fails to form an independent course, the risk of becoming a geopolitical polygon will increase.
