Global coffee and chocolate prices may increase again due to the El Niño weather phenomenon, which affects the productivity of tropical crops.
El Niño is characterized by warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, increasing the likelihood of hurricanes, extreme heat, droughts, and heavy rainfall worldwide.
The biggest risk for the cocoa sector is in West Africa, the main producer. Heavy rains can cause fungal infections in cocoa trees, followed by hot weather and drought that significantly reduce yields.
In 2024, crop shortages led to a sharp rise in cocoa prices, with a ton of raw cocoa exceeding $12,000. By late June, cocoa futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 8.5% to about $5,040.
The impact of El Niño on coffee varies by type. Drought in Indonesia and Vietnam may reduce robusta yields, while arabica depends mainly on weather conditions in Brazil.
Experts note that price increases on exchanges are not immediately felt on store shelves due to warehouse stocks, long-term contracts, logistics costs, and exchange rates. However, if raw material prices remain high, manufacturers may reduce product weight or change recipes.
