Global crude oil and oil product reserves are declining at an unprecedented rate. According to Goldman Sachs analysts cited by Bloomberg, the war in the Middle East is disrupting supplies.
In May 2026, total inventories fell by a record 8.7 million barrels per day, about twice the average since the conflict began.
Physical markets continue to tighten, as oil exports via the Strait are only 5% of normal levels.
The International Energy Agency warned about the rapid depletion of commercial oil reserves. Even if the conflict ends soon, the market will face a sharp supply deficit until October.
The import slowdown has spread from Asia to Europe. Jet fuel deliveries to Europe are 60% below the 2025 average. U.S. strategic petroleum reserves fell by 17.8 million barrels, with some state storage facilities nearly empty.
Analysts note that the U.S. holiday season will increase demand for gasoline and jet fuel.
Wood Mackenzie warns that a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could push Brent crude prices to $200 per barrel, triggering the worst energy crisis in a century.
